One Futurist's View of Genetic Engineering:
A Timeline
Somatic genetic engineering. The replacement or reprogramming of genetic
material in specific, differentiated and developed tissue. Used to treat a specific
illness, such as diabetes. (this technology is currently in its infancy)
Human cloning.
Information gleaned from cloning research, such as understanding totipotency
and differentiation will have importance. However, cloning will have very little
practical use (why replicate person X when it's just as easy to make someone
better than X?). (2012, depending on legislation)
Genetic Prognostication. The classification of genes and their
expressions. (ongoing)
Embryonic Engineering. The admittance and omission of specific genes
and gene complements in the zygote or early embryo. The effect would be to eliminate
certain diseases and give the individual strong predilections, such as muscle
tone and intellect.
One near future and foreseeable process:
"Shake and Bake": Mom and dad contribute germ cells. (Dad's are already
numerous and in ready package. A single oocyte, in meiosis 1, is gotten from
mom and then replicated in the lab). Anywhere from, say, 10 to several thousand
zygotes are created in vitro. After a number of embryonic divisions
a sample cell is removed from each and prognosticated. Mom and dad choose one
(or more) from the four or five best cases. (Something like this appears to
have been the case in the movie Gattaca)
(2020)
Comprehensive Genetic Engineering (CGE): CGE will require knowledge
of genetic permutations and spacial permutations of the expressed proteins.
For this task current computing technology falls short by many orders of magnitude.
It is my belief that something like quantum computing, which can process extremely
large numbers of cases, will usher in CGE. CGE will allow for extremely fine
control over the organism. Genetic determinism will become an art, that is,
being able to increase the the likelihood of attributes by the mutual action
of genes. This era marked by:
a) age reversal
b) disease elimination
c) limb regeneration (in situ)
(2015-2080)
Real-Time Genetic Engineering (RTGE): The as-thorough-as-you-like
real-time genetic replacement in, and hence re-design of, the individual. An
analogy is a computer application update patch that selectively replaces particular
lines in the application's code. (2020)
Novel, or Exhaustive Genetic Engineering (EGE): EGE has not
only fully catalogued natural genetic systems, but will be able to foresee (by
Prognostication) and design virtually ANY arbitrary organism. This era marked
by:
a) completely new organ chemistry and design, such as new muscle designs, replacing
the actin-myosin type
b) multiple and remote neural systems (immortality (??)) for the individual...
(2060- )
© Dave Zes 2005